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Reality Check

Already running and wondering where the money is going—or thinking about starting? Start here. Know what this business actually needs to earn before it costs you more than you can afford.

85% Failed Within Three Years

During the prolonged freight downturn, the average three-year failure rate for motor carriers with less than two years of operating experience and their own authority reached 85%, according to an industry executive cited by FreightWaves.

That does NOT mean 85% of every trucking company will always fail. But it should make one thing very clear:

Starting a trucking business without knowing your real numbers can put your savings, credit, household finances, and future at risk.

This isn't a game. Before you spend tens of thousands of dollars on a truck, trailer, insurance, authority, and equipment, you need to know whether the business can actually support your household AND survive the real cost of operating.

The mistakes that put new carriers at risk include:

  • Underestimating operating costs
  • Underpricing freight
  • Running without maintenance reserves
  • Buying equipment before understanding the numbers
  • Not planning for slow freight markets

The goal here is not to sell a dream. It is to help you understand the business before you spend that money.

Source: “Trucking downturn: Why 85% of new carriers didn't survive” — FreightWaves, August 24, 2026.

The gross number is not the take-home number

A $1,500 load is not $1,500 in your pocket. Gross revenue must first support the real operating costs and financial requirements included in your HSS Hard Floor — including fuel, maintenance and repair reserves, insurance, tolls, tires, equipment replacement, and the minimum owner/household requirements included in your calculation. Only after the HSS Hard Floor is covered can the remaining money be treated as profit or excess earnings under the HSS model. Applicable tax obligations must then be protected from those earnings as appropriate.

Seeing a Load Doesn't Mean You Can Book It

Load boards can show attractive rates and plenty of freight, but what matters is the freight you can realistically access and consistently book. Some loads may have carrier requirements you don't yet meet, some may disappear quickly, and a few great-paying loads do not represent the overall market.

Research the freight in your actual operating area and understand what is realistically available to a new authority before building your business plan around load-board rates.

Many Loads Are Closed to New Authorities

Many brokers have minimum authority-age requirements before they will work with a carrier. Common requirements range from 30 days to 12 months of active authority, and some brokers may require inspections or prior load history.

This means the freight available to a new carrier can be very different from what an established carrier sees. Your first year is often spent building relationships, history, and credibility — not just hauling freight.

This means some of the loads you see advertised online may not actually be available to you yet. A load can look great on a load board and still be unavailable because your authority is too new.

Learning the Business Matters

Many new carriers hire a dispatcher before they understand how freight moves, how brokers operate, or how rates are negotiated.

A dispatcher can be helpful, but relying on one too early can slow down your understanding of the business. The carriers who know their lanes, costs, customers, and brokers have more control over their future.

If you hire a dispatcher, make sure you are still learning how the loads are found, priced, negotiated, and booked.

The goal is not to discourage dispatchers. The goal is to remind new carriers that dispatching can be outsourced, but understanding the business should not be.

Relationship Building Matters

Every broker, shipper, and customer relationship has value. When a dispatcher handles every phone call, negotiation, and booking, they often become the primary point of contact.

Over time, the dispatcher may build the relationship while the carrier remains largely unknown. If the dispatcher leaves, changes companies, or stops working with you, those relationships may leave with them.

Strong relationships are one of the most valuable assets a trucking business can build. Many owner-operators eventually move beyond load boards by developing direct relationships with brokers, customers, and shippers who know and trust them.

Real operating costs add up fast

Operating costs fall into two groups. Fixed costs generally exist whether the truck moves or not. Variable, per-mile costs are created by operating the equipment, or represent money that must be reserved because operating the equipment consumes and wears it out. Both must be covered before a business earns any profit.

Your fixed costs depend on your equipment, insurance, authority, location, financing, subscriptions, permits, and operating structure. Get actual quotes and actual numbers whenever possible. A business plan built on somebody else’s costs can give you the wrong answer.

Fixed costs (monthly)

These generally exist whether the truck moves or not. Identify the actual amounts from your own quotes and agreements:

  • Truck and trailer payments or leases
  • Commercial insurance
  • Authority, IFTA, permits, ELD subscription
  • Parking, accounting, and other recurring subscriptions

Variable / per-mile and revenue-based costs

These change with miles, activity, or revenue:

  • Fuel: Burned on every mile, loaded or empty.
  • Maintenance, repairs and tires: Repairs, tires, DEF systems, transmissions, brakes, and breakdowns do not arrive on schedule, but the miles earn them.
  • Future equipment replacement reserve: Every mile uses up part of your truck and trailer. Reserve for that now, not when the equipment is worn out.
  • Percentage-based factoring or dispatch fees, where applicable: These vary with revenue or load activity rather than remaining a flat monthly amount.

These are operating costs, not expenses that come out of profit when the bill shows up.

Startup money is not the same as staying-in-business money

Three different pools of money get confused constantly, and the difference decides whether a business survives its first breakdown:

  • Startup costs: the money required to get operational — truck, trailer, insurance down payment, authority, permits, securement equipment.
  • Operating costs and reserves: maintenance, repairs, tires, and eventual equipment replacement. These are recovered through your rates and belong in your cost per mile, before profit.
  • Emergency / operating cash reserve: liquid cash held to keep the business alive through a major breakdown, downtime, a slow freight period, or delayed customer and broker payments — times when revenue stops but the bills keep coming.

The emergency reserve is not another per-mile expense. It is liquidity, and it should ideally already exist before you start operating. Spending nearly every available dollar to get the truck, trailer, insurance, authority, and equipment ready leaves a business undercapitalized even though it technically had enough money to "start."

If you draw the reserve down, replenish it from retained business earnings according to your financial plan — not by treating it as a recurring cost per mile.

The question to answer, whether you're starting or already running: "After everything the business requires, how much cash do I still have available to keep it alive when something goes wrong or revenue slows down?"

Most people calculate what the truck needs.

Far fewer calculate what their life needs.

Before buying a truck, trailer, or authority, determine what your household must receive every month just to remain financially stable.

What's Your Real Monthly Number?

Add together your household expenses to determine the minimum amount your business needs to provide toward your household requirements each month.

This total is not your cost per mile or your total required business revenue. It represents the minimum amount the business needs to provide toward your household requirements each month. Carry it into the Cost Per Mile calculator, where it is combined with your business costs to calculate your HSS Hard Floor.

If trucking is going to replace a job, it has to replace more than a paycheck. Health coverage and retirement contributions are benefits an employer might otherwise provide. Self-employed, you fund them yourself — so they belong in the number you require from the business, not in whatever happens to be left over at the end of the year.

Total personal monthly need$0.00

What type of equipment are you running or planning to run?

Your choice sets the starting cost guidance shown in the Cost Per Mile calculator.

A profitable trucking business does not automatically mean your household finances are covered.

Where the money goes, in order

Your Hard Floor is not the same thing as accounting or taxable profit. It is the minimum this business must earn to cover its true operating costs and provide the minimum compensation and benefits you require from self-employment.

  1. Revenue comes in.
  2. Hard Floor — required owner/household compensation and benefits, business fixed costs, fuel and variable costs, the maintenance/repairs/tires reserve, and the equipment replacement reserve.
  3. Earnings above the Hard Floor are profit.
  4. Set aside whatever tax obligations apply to your business and entity type.
  5. Build or replenish the business emergency cash reserve if it is short.
  6. What's left can go toward additional savings and investing, extra retirement, business growth, owner distributions, or discretionary spending.

These are priorities, not bank accounts. Taxes and profit are never added into the Hard Floor — the Hard Floor is the line you have to cross before either one exists.

Slow weeks happen

Freight is cyclical. Slow periods can last days, weeks, or months, and no one can guarantee when rates or volume will recover. Your business needs enough liquidity to survive periods when revenue falls below normal expectations.

That liquidity is your separate business emergency / operating cash reserve — not another per-mile expense. Maintenance, repairs, tires, and future equipment replacement are already accounted for inside the HSS Hard Floor.

The honest question

Don't ask, "Can I make money in trucking?" Ask: "Do I know my HSS Hard Floor, and does the freight I can realistically run consistently produce enough revenue per true business mile to clear it?" If you can't answer that yet, the calculators on this site are the next step.